Téléchargez le livre : Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies

de

Éditeur :

Springer


Paru le : 2021-12-09



eBook Téléchargement , DRM LCP 🛈 DRM Adobe 🛈
Lecture en ligne (streaming)
Gratuit
Téléchargement immédiat
Dès validation de votre commande
Ajouter à ma liste d'envies
Image Louise Reader présentation

Louise Reader

Lisez ce titre sur l'application Louise Reader.

badge apple Application Louise Reader
badge Android Application Louise Reader
Description

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
Pages
263 pages
Collection
n.c
Parution
2021-12-09
Marque
Springer
EAN papier
9783030830380
EAN PDF
9783030830397
Informations sur l'ebook
Nombre pages copiables
2
Nombre pages imprimables
26
Taille du fichier
12104 Ko
Ce livre est accessible aux handicaps Voir les informations sur l'accessibilité
Prix
0,00 €
EAN EPUB
9783030830397
Informations sur l'ebook
Nombre pages copiables
2
Nombre pages imprimables
26
Taille du fichier
41943 Ko
Ce livre est accessible aux handicaps Voir les informations sur l'accessibilité
Prix
0,00 €

Jakub Bijak is Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton. He has background in economics (PhD 2008, Warsaw School of Economics) and over 20 years’ work experience in academia and international civil service. His research focuses on demographic uncertainty, population and migration models and forecasts, and the demography of armed conflict. He has been awarded the Allianz European Demographer Award (2015) and the Jerzy Z Holzer Medal (2007) for work on migration modelling. Leader of a European Research Council project “Bayesian agent-based population studies” (www.baps-project.eu), and a Horizon 2020 project “QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy” (www.quantmig.eu).

Suggestions personnalisées